A fuzzy turning point

Sometimes we went somewhere to do something, but at the halfway or at the time we reach, we forgot the intention to be there. It happens once a while, isn’t it?

Yes, it is for me. Knowing what you want is essential, and yet knowing you want is never sufficient. Knowing what to do to achieve it is critical. The most terrible thing is losing our confidence, losing our direction in living. I’ve got the feeling of lost direction again, and it is severely spreading in the fear of acting improperly in this turning point from graduation to employment. The burden of mine is just heavy. This feeling wouldn’t disappear until I turn the corner, until I reached the destination. But when does the day come?

Once ago, I love writing. Because I found make friends with words are much easier than make friends with human beings. One of the advantages of writing compare to chatting is, we don’t need more than one person in writing. Writing does not require responses. Writing was once my habit to express my feelings, to release unhappiness until the day I get together with Jm. There is even someone says I was getting more cheerful since I was coupled. It is the reason that I stop writing blog, life was cheerful and there was someone to share with. The habit of writing was stopped. But I do not back to writing anymore, although I was separated with her few months later. The reason is simply I don’t even have to mood to do writing. Today, we are not contacted to each other. However, I appreciate all the happiness and sadness given, because every single thing creates ‘Me’ today. Anyway, she is not the topic today. =)

Being over calculative in planning is bad, I know it. As my mother always says, don’t be over planned and planning for the others. Yes, I understand and I just could not get rid of it. It is the same as how much I wish I have a father or brother who plans for my family, plans for themselves. But the fact is not possible. I just don’t even willing to talk about how pessimistic my family situation.

I believe I should learn the ignorance. Yes I should, I will.

How much I could earn so that I could fully bear my family’s expenses? The question I am thinking every single day. My father is not earning for years, my mother is earning few hundred which is not always stable. My elder brother’s contribution to family is not stable. Younger brother is just started his college, four more years to complete his study life.

My very first aim is my mother could stop working. To achieve this, I should contribute sufficiently for my mother to pay my family monthly expenses, which is at least RM 1000. But frankly speaking this is not enough. As my mother wishes to save some money, for my younger brother education fund to go UK for 3 months, or some medical savings, because my family has no savings, insurance. Seeing this, I would need another RM500 monthly saving for my younger brother education saving purposes.

At the same time, we are now staying at rental house still. I could not wait anymore to purchase a double storey house for my family. My mother likes cooking, and enjoys planting vegetables in the spaces beside the house. So I plan to purchase a double storey cornet lot house at Kepong in next three years, which now cost at least RM 600k.

Assuming the same cost (the housing price is expected to continue rising, so the location of my buying house would have to change accordingly), to have RM60k as deposit, monthly should have at least about RM1.5k savings. 3years time will accumulate a total of RM54k, with some riskless investment returns, plus the EPF savings in these three years, the house deposit and loan processing fees should be not a problem.

So add up, the monthly savings is wanted to be RM 3000, and yet getting a RM3000 gross salary also causes me a problem. But I believe this can be relieved slightly, where my expected monthly expenses are RM500. Thus, getting a RM4000 salary would be ideally perfect (This is IMPOSSIBLE, I know it ><), which will have a net salary of RM35++ after EPF deduction, which will accurately cover my monthly expenses and RM2000 savings plan.

But I have to be realistic in real life, so now I am thinking of getting in PBB will have a starting pay of 2.8k, which left 2.5k after EPF deduction. This might still give me 1k savings monthly, giving only 1k difference in saving expectations.

Of course, the thinking of getting over Singapore is still blinking in my mind. Who doesn’t ever think of earning S. Dollar? This is what a lots of Malaysian thinking, I believe. But it is extremely difficult to make it if you wish to take a good position in Singapore, unless you are top among the candidates.

Thinking days and nights, does not give me a good solution. My lord, I know I should not be so calculative in planning everything, which might be in contrast with the God’s aspiration. But what I do is just trying to make my family’s life easier, to release my mother’s burden. Pitying her being difficult for so many years, I am just doing my best to improve the standard of livings, but not doing cheat, or harming any body else’s benefits. God, please bless me. Thank for your leniency, I will appreciate very much.

A New Era – Zero Emission Vehicle

I was proud to say the last Saturday, I attended Nissan New product guide (NISSAN LEAF) briefing and test drive session. It is not surprising get to know an zero emission vehicle is developed. But I was excited in capturing how great is a zero emission vehicle.

A zero emission vehicle (in other words, electric car) as its name defined, zero emission means it does not emis smokes. It has no pipe, no smoke emission. Of course, with a very great vision- commits to our Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), keep CO2 condition low as to respond to the current environmental issues. The recent global warming issues have lighting up the warning attention issues. Threat to endangered species is severing, rising sea level, destruction of coral reef ecosystem, desertification, and all these alerts telling us reduction of CO2 emission is imperative.

According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th report, to answer the current environmental issue, minimum allowance of temperature rise is 2 degree Celsius. It is needed to keep CO2 concentration below 450ppm for the above condition.

Nissan estimate that to achieve 450ppm, it is needed to reduce CO2 emission from all new vehicles by 90% by 2050 (vs. 2000). Thus, zero emission vehicle is one of the solution to achieve this objective.

The key entering this zero emission vehicle’s development history is lithium-ion battery, which has been started in experience, research and development for many years.

Nissan Leaf will bring us a full new, fresh and unique driving experience. I will definitely get one if I have the money. :) A completely quiet driving condition, even when it is accelerating. A completely fresh driving experience, isn't it? Compare with gasoline, engine vehicle, we now have the chance to feel another quietly driving experience.

An environmental concept vehicle, large portion of vehicle parts are made and recycled from used products, not necessary used product, but it could be end of life of materials. But of course, your car would not be any difference with any new car just because of it is made from recycled materials.





High tech features that a gasoline car does not available, a fully charged battery can runs 160 kilometers as it tested in Europe countries. However, this does not exactly match in our country as the temperature definitely will affect the usage of battery. Battery can be charged at the night, or during your lunch hour, or your shopping session while the car in car park.

Another spec that impressed me is the charging control may even connects to your mobile phone! ^^ And the charging method has normal charge, and quick charge (for emergency usage).

Pre-charging time is available, you may set the time to switch on charger and the time to switch off as well. Automatic air conditional switcher, allows you to switch on air conditional with pre-order. For example we can set auto switch on air condition at 5pm, and when the time we are off from work and get into car, the car is ready with cool air. Isn't it a new excitement of driving experience?

Battery usage will be shown, where we even could select how to use te battery more effectively to go further distance with same battery. Energy saving scenario can be selected, the degree celsius of air condition will affect energy usage as well.

Other than technology, quietness, enviromental concept, how about power? Don't worry, an zero emission vehicle does not use engine, its pick up speed and accelerating speed is definitely faster than gasoline car.

Moreover, the gasoline cars are heavier in front part as the engines are all placed in front. In contrast, the battery are now placed at the center bottom of the car. Your car now is having a better gravity control.

Lastly and yet a major concern, what is the maintenance cost of this zero emission vehicle? Assuming we are driving 50km per day, every 10 little petrol can cover 100 kilometer distance.
Ron-95        annual petrol cost : Rm 3,4xx
Ron-97        annual petrol cost : Rm 5,2xx
Nissan LEAF annual maintenance cost: Rm 1,8xx
Obviously, zero-emission vehicle is worthy in driving cost and saving environments.
I have seen the physical car, the outlook is just as a normal car, comfortably 5-seat car.

Property bubble forming?

If you are a Malaysia citizen, who in the current time, or in future time have to make a purchase of residential property by ourselves, you will definitely concerns about how the prices trend of residential property moving all the way. The prices of residential property in the past few years were substantially shoot up, as within my expectation. This substantial uptrend movement has emerged the worries of property bubble. One of the well-known residential properties is Desa Park City, nearby where I stay now.  

My memories are still fresh in my mind, a terrace double storey house was sold only at RM4xx, xxx four years ago. And now, with the same terrace double storey, the prices range is about 2millions. Simple annual return is about 100%. Assume you purchase at RM 400,000 and now it worth RM 2,000, 000. You earn RM 400,000 each year, which is equal to a 100% uncompounded return each year.

Talking of a property bubble in Malaysia, it sounds true but does not look so plausible. The sharp rise in residential property is merely confined to selected areas, but not applicable to everywhere.
Although there are many says that property bubbles in Malaysia is getting form, and concerns of the worries as what subprime mortgage happened in United States. In responses, the guidelines for loan borrowers were tightened.

Personally I believe, to form property bubble there is still some way to go, but kind of unsure how far the prices can further drive away. However, the worries of household debt in Malaysia is considerably heavy, the high residential property prices is one of the reasons drive up the household debts. The household debt to disposable income ratio is 140%, one of the highest in the world, while Singapore and United States has only a ratio of 105% and 123% respectively, according to Bank Negara 2010 Annual report.
Click here, for the information of Malaysia household debt.

How do these all relates to our citizens? From my personal point of view, the property bubbles is not at the point of forming yet, and the residential property prices growth is sustainable, it might continue at a upward trend but a slower rate, where how much the extent in increase in residential property will depends on the areas. But what makes this to happen? It is definitely not demand is over the supply, but the market is just too speculative.
Napic Property Overhang report shown the volume of residential overhang units in Malaysia has declined 15.2% to 19,607 units in 2011 compared to 23,133 units in 2010. (Overhang units are defined as completed units that have obtained certificates of fitness for occupation (CFO) but have not been sold for more than 9 months after official launch for sale) However, Kuala Lumpur has the highest number of overhang residential units and recorded a rise of 19% to 2,871 units from 2,400 units in 2010. The construction activities was remain positive in residential sector, looking another 36.6% rose in new start construction from 84,496 units to 115,448 units in year 2011.
Click here, for the article news of overhang residential units.

The property sales and developer are optimistic and being positive in supplying residential houses, and shaking the flag of ‘the high prices are reasonable’. Although there are still closer to 20% of overhang new residential units. Other than this, one thing that we must aware is the occupancy rate. Remember, sold doesn’t mean it is occupied. There are many units that are bought for speculation, which is not rented, not occupied.

The speculation activities are all done by foreigner buyers and high income professionals. The current condition is sustaining and this is definitely need attention of property sector and our government. Constructing a project of lower cost residential houses for the lower income workers are just not the way to fix the problem out. The cost transferred to the government is not a long term measures, and the lower-cost residential units are just not sufficient for our Malaysia citizens. In contrast, is that means the government shows no measures to control and limits the upward trend of residential prices?

Personally thinking, first and foremost the speculators who make up this are foreign buyers and high income professionals. The central banks could not raise up the borrowing rate as it eventually will dampen the economy. I will suggest the government or the property development should limits the foreign buyers, where every launching new construction there are maximum units/percentage that are available for foreign buyers. On the other hand, for the people who buying second, third properties should be only allowed a maximum of 70% to 80% loan to value.

Multi-Level Marketing Investment

The strong market competition, and continuously changes in market needs and customer perceptions are all the way leading the marketing strategy to be more complicated, where one of the complex marketing strategies is MLM (Multi Level Marketing) strategy.

From the very beginning, marketing strategy was first started with retails selling. From times to times, the marketing strategy expands to direct marketing, network marketing, and multi level marketing. So, what is so unique and complicated about MLM investment?

In contrast with single level marketing, where the sales person is rewarded for selling the product directly to consumer, multi level marketing is in such a way where the sales person not only compensated for the sales they generate personally, but also for the sales of others they recruit. MLM involves a creation of downline of distributors and the upline is entitled to receive a multiple level of compensation which works like a hierarchy. The compensation of MLM could be highly attractive, and because of it the salesman are highly self-motivated.

The approach to sales of MLM is usually done by the mean of relationship referrals and word of mouth marketing. MLM programs are designed to enhance the marketing effectiveness. Rather than waiting customer to walk in by doing retail selling, the strategy is now to walk out to seeking customers. By using the mean of relationship referrals and word of mouth marketing, it change the way of expand your product market share. The compensation approach motivates sales person to join in the business circle. The concept is simple, to expand the product market share, to enlarge the business circle and rewards them in commissions.

Adopting MLM program to conduct business in the right and legal way, MLM could be very productive and endless potential. However, to do an investment in MLM plan, it could be very risky. The reason is now most MLM programs are just a dressed up pyramid scheme, where the selling products could be intangible, selling the ‘hope of future’ by guarantee a high profits, the belief where the business model going succeed. The distributors don’t even know how the exactly doing, for example it might be a saving product giving high interest rate, or an unproven business concept guarantees that it going to register franchise, to be listed under Bursa. Again this is about pyramid scheme, where the incomes of distributors at the top come from the distributors at the
bottom.
The worst side of MLM program is the investors are easily to
be sucked into a big trap.
Click here for the pros and cons of MLM Programs.
Click here for the 10 big lies of MLM Programs.

Dual currency investment

A friend was asked by her superior to research on dual currency investment. It stimulates my mind, where I am missing on my way towards learning. I realised i have no learnt a new thing in the past few months, making up my mind to start up to reading.

Dual currency investment, gives an investor an opportunity to earn higher returns compared to a regular fixed deposit. This is the definition given by a banker, usually, who persuades client to make investment on it. It is a linked-currency product. Investor always has the flexibility to choose a base currency and a alternative currency for his investment. Investors are eligible to receive his investment interest plus interest earned in base currency or alternative currency. Investment tenor could be 1 week to 6 months.

However, the actual product is very complex, and not easy to understand.

A dual currency investment involves two currency an investor choose and the use of spot rate and target rate (conversion rate). An investor is paid by his principal and interest earned in base currency if the prevailing spot rate does not go beyond its target rate, and is paid in alternative currency if the prevailing spot rate goes beyond its target rate.

The explanation above might be confuse, to make it simple, we use a simple example.

Today (19th April 2012), GBP/MYR is trading at 4.910. You believe the rate might be fluctuates, probably depreciates, but will not fall below 4.810 (1000 pips away from spot rate).

What is the key information that determines your returns?

Base currency: MYR 5,000

Alternative currency: GBP

Spot rate: 4.910

Conversion rate: 4.810

Trade date: 19th April

Value date: 21th April

Fixing date: 17th April

Maturiy date: 19th April

Tenor: 1 month (30days)

Yield rate: 8% per annum

Scenario 1: Prevailing spot rate does not go beyond (>) conversion rate

On fixing date, if MYR/GBP is trading at 4.86, which is above the conversion rate (4.810), you will receive MYR 5032.88. (Investment amount + Yield amount in base currency(MYR) on maturity date.

Scenario 2: Prevailing spot rate goes beyond (<) conversion rate

On fixing date, if MYR/GBP depreciates to 4.71, which is below conversion rate (4.810), you will receive

GBP 1046.34. As mentioned earlier, if the alternative currency depreciates below the conversion rate, you are commited to purchase the alternative currency at conversion rate.

Dual currency investment are structured by the banker as to share the risk of alternative currency depreciates beyond a certain level, which is structured in the bank's favor. It is a complex and risky product, where is not advisable for averse investor to invest. The banker might tell you if the currency drops, you may keep the currency and wait it to recover. This, is a misleading advice. The loss you made has occurred. Again you are unsure whether the currency will recover, and even if it do, you are unclear how long does it take to recover, the loss occurred is definitely made. If you keep it longer, you might suffer the risk of a bigger loss, and your opportunity cost.

This is not a game for people who invest their hard earned money.

后来的我

在成长的过程中，每个人难免会遇到一些失落感；而其中最为熟悉的，最难过的失落感，就是在自己的心灵深处遗失了一片宽阔的田野。现在的感觉，就像处于空旷的荷塘，旁边的河水不再清晰的流淌，荷塘边的小鸡找不到母鸡般的惊慌失措，蓝天白云瞬间变得阴沉沉的，成群结队的燕子正要消失尽我的视野，习习的风吹倒了在田野中央的稻草人，稻草人压倒的却不是农作物，可全都是杂草，这时，细小的雨滴打在茁壮的杂草，也打在我七零八落的思绪。。。

后来的我，终于；鼓起仅有的勇气，撑起那把看似有点旧旧的雨伞，一个人走向看不见尽头的田野，这时，雨势逐渐壮大，豆大般的雨滴打在破旧的雨伞上，显得有点吃力，有些勉强。于是，我用力的握著雨伞的柄尝试不让它放任的晃动；可是随着一阵没有预兆的大风吹过，轻盈的雨伞还是挣脱了我的手，离开了我的身边。而我，却只是静静地看着它飘远...不知道什么时候，不懂得过了多久，我从站在田野中央，到已经坐在一颗大树下。抬头一望，这棵大树的果实原来接近成熟了，颜色多么鲜艳；转回头，想找回我的雨伞，才发现它已经飘得很远很远了。原来，雨，也停了。
这个时候，觉得手怎么痒痒的，我用力的甩开，把手上的毛毛虫甩到雨后的水滩。它挣扎不了，慢慢地在水滩里溺毙...
生命是多么的脆弱...；可是只要愿意相信，生活是否可以如想像般的不平凡 ?
于是，后来的我，终于，鼓起勇气，继续往前走，一个人，不再转头留恋已经不再属于我的雨伞，记住那个在风雨中依然茂盛的大树，依然盛开的果实，慢慢走远


从番茄菜园，一直走到滑板秋千，繁华都市，再走到...潺潺流水积眼眶，苍苍落叶片满地，已经走了20年又10个月 ...